Wage Impact — By 2030
High-Skill AI Wage Premium by 2030
Confidence range: 22% to 42%
Workers with strong AI and machine learning skills currently earn about 30% more than the median worker in comparable roles. This "AI premium" reflects both scarcity of talent and the outsized productivity gains AI-skilled workers deliver. A rising premium signals that AI skills are becoming more, not less, valuable.
Most AI-and-jobs claims come from journalism or social media. Toggle to to see what the rigorous evidence actually says.
Filter by evidence quality
How This Prediction Has Evolved
Each data point is from a different source. Dots are color-coded by evidence tier.
Sources (15)
AI/ML engineers median total compensation reached $185K in 2025, with top-tier researchers commanding $500K-$1M+. The premium over general software roles widened to 35%.
Workers with AI skills now command a 56% wage premium over non-AI peers, up from 25% just one year prior. AI roles median compensation reaches $157K.
Less experienced workers improve most from AI assistance; AI disseminates best practices from top performers. Top workers see smaller or negative quality effects.
NVIDIA disclosed median employee compensation of $328,000, up 24% YoY. Headcount in AI research grew 40% while total headcount grew 12%.
Job postings requiring AI/ML skills offer 28% higher salaries on average. Postings mentioning 'AI' in title or requirements grew 65% YoY.
Job postings requiring AI skills offer 21-35% higher wages than comparable postings without AI requirements.
OpenAI's $6.6B raise implied avg AI researcher comp of $800K-$1.5M total. Senior ML engineers offered $400K-$900K base + equity.
Significant investment in AI talent, with compensation packages reflecting market premium for AI expertise.
ChatGPT compressed productivity distribution — low-ability workers gained most (40% time reduction, 18% quality increase). May reduce skill premium over time.
Workers who complement AI see significant wage gains; those whose tasks are substituted face wage pressure.