15 predictions · 153 sources
How is AI reshaping the labor market?
Tracking 15 predictions across displacement, wages, adoption, and corporate signals — sourced from peer-reviewed research, government data, think tanks, and earnings calls. Filter by evidence quality to see how the picture changes.
Most AI-and-jobs claims come from journalism or social media. Toggle to to see what the rigorous evidence actually says.
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Job Displacement
Projected share of jobs eliminated or restructured by AI, by sector
Overall US Job Displacement by 2030
Range: 4% to 14%
An estimated 8% of US jobs face net displacement from AI by 2030 — roles eliminated or fundamentally restructured.
Total US Jobs Lost to AI as % of Labor Force
Range: 2% to 8%
Roughly 8 million US workers are projected to lose their jobs to AI and automation.
White-Collar Professional Displacement by 2030
Range: 11% to 27%
18% of legal, accounting, and financial analyst roles face restructuring or elimination from LLMs and AI tools.
Tech Sector Job Displacement by 2030
Range: 9% to 22%
14% of tech sector jobs could be displaced by AI coding assistants and automated ops.
Creative Industry Displacement by 2030
Range: 12% to 32%
20% of creative roles in design, writing, and marketing could be displaced by generative AI tools.
Education Sector Displacement by 2030
Range: 6% to 21%
12% of education support roles face displacement as AI handles tutoring, grading, and content creation.
Healthcare Administrative Displacement by 2030
Range: 22% to 48%
35% of healthcare admin roles (coding, billing, prior auth) projected to be automated — one of the fastest-moving sectors.
Customer Service Automation by 2028
Range: 28% to 50%
45% of CS interactions projected to be fully handled by AI without human involvement.
Wage Impact
How AI adoption is projected to affect compensation across worker segments
Median Wage Impact from AI by 2030
Range: -5% to 3%
Real median wages projected to decline 2% as AI reshapes mid-skill work.
AI Hub vs. Non-Hub Wage Divergence by 2030
Range: 31% to 55%
AI hub cities (SF, Seattle, NYC) pay 42% more than non-hub metros for tech workers — and the gap is accelerating.
Entry-Level Wage Impact from AI by 2030
Range: -14% to -3%
Entry-level wages in knowledge work are projected to decline 8% as AI handles tasks traditionally done by juniors.
High-Skill AI Wage Premium by 2030
Range: 17% to 36%
Workers with AI/ML skills earn ~25% more than median — the gap is widening.
Freelancer/Gig Worker Rate Impact by 2028
Range: -33% to -13%
Freelancer rates in AI-exposed categories (writing, design, translation) have fallen 22% — a leading indicator of broader wage shifts.
AI Adoption
How rapidly companies are deploying AI in production workflows
Leading Signals
Real-time indicators of how corporate America is thinking about AI and workforce
What if these predictions are right?
See how the displacement trends tracked above could cascade into broader economic risk — from payroll compression to consumer spending declines to mortgage market stress.
Read “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”Live research feed
Discover Papers
Search Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, and arXiv for recent AI + labor market research. Papers are automatically classified by evidence tier and linked to the predictions above.