Job Displacement — By 2030
Overall US Job Displacement by 2030
Confidence range: 5% to 15%
This means roughly 9% of all US jobs are projected to be eliminated or fundamentally restructured by AI and automation by 2030. "Net displacement" accounts for both jobs lost and the fact that some affected roles are restructured rather than fully eliminated. For context, 1% of the US labor force is about 1.67 million workers.
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How This Prediction Has Evolved
Each data point is from a different source. Dots are color-coded by evidence tier.
Sources (18)
35.9% of US workers used generative AI by December 2025; small positive wage effects, no significant decline in job openings.
40% of employers globally expect to reduce headcount as AI automates tasks. Net displacement estimates range from 5-14% of current roles by 2030.
Analysis finds no significant macro-level job displacement from AI as of late 2025, though structural shifts are emerging in specific sectors.
Despite fears of imminent AI jobs apocalypse, the overall labor market shows more continuity than disruption since ChatGPT's launch.
Framework for guiding innovation to increase labor demand; steering technology becomes more desirable the less efficient social safety nets are.
IBM CEO stated plans to replace ~7,800 back-office roles with AI. Company investing in reskilling remaining workforce for AI-augmented roles.
Amazon reported 75% increase in robotic and AI systems in fulfillment centers. Warehouse associate hiring slowed while 'AI specialist' roles grew 3x.
Workers in AI-exposed occupations face significantly higher unemployment risk.
Total US job postings are 15% below their February 2022 peak. Categories most exposed to AI (data entry, basic admin, customer service) show steepest declines.
AI may increase TFP by only 0.53-0.66% over 10 years, with limited job displacement effects.
Almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, with advanced economies more affected.
27% of jobs are in occupations at high risk of automation across OECD countries.
Roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation; generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work.