Job Displacement — By 2030
Tech Sector Job Displacement by 2030
Confidence range: 10% to 22%
An estimated 15% of tech sector roles — including software engineers, QA testers, IT support, and data analysts — face displacement from AI coding assistants, automated testing, and AI-driven operations. "Displacement" means the role ceases to exist in its current form, not that the worker is necessarily unemployed.
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How This Prediction Has Evolved
Each data point is from a different source. Dots are color-coded by evidence tier.
Sources (17)
BLS projects AI will dampen software developer employment growth to 17% through 2034, revised down from prior 25% estimate, as AI coding tools reduce headcount needs.
78,000 tech sector job losses attributed to AI in the first half of 2025, with QA testing, junior development, and IT support roles most affected.
13% relative decline in employment for workers ages 22-25 in most AI-exposed occupations. Software developer employment for ages 22-25 down nearly 20% since ChatGPT's launch.
Alphabet disclosed ongoing workforce restructuring, noting AI tools have reduced need for certain engineering and support roles while increasing demand for AI/ML specialists.
Meta's 'Year of Efficiency' resulted in ~21,000 job cuts across 2023. Company cited AI-driven productivity gains enabling smaller teams to maintain output.
Software developer postings declined 14% YoY while AI/ML engineer postings grew 45%. Net tech postings down 6% reflecting structural shift, not just cyclical downturn.
AI will increase productivity but impact on jobs more modest than often claimed; estimates ~5% of tasks fully automatable.
Current employment data do not yet show large-scale AI-driven displacement.
Only 23% of worker wages for vision tasks would be cost-effective to automate with AI today.
AI could expose 300 million full-time jobs globally to automation.
Generative AI could enable automation of up to 70% of business activities across occupations.
Employers estimate that 44% of workers' core skills will be disrupted in the next five years.